Signal Comparison

SPY vs IWM — Signal Comparison

SPY regime: 🟡 Chop RegimeT1 win rate this regime: 44%
Verdict

As of October 11, 2026, SPY has a stronger EdgeOS setup with a Bull Count 4 (SCTR 6.7, choppy regime) vs IWM which has no active signal (SCTR 2.7). SPY's T1 setup has a 44% historical win rate in choppy regimes (799k signals, 7-year backtest). The current SPY regime is choppy.

SPYBull Count 4
$778.57
SCTR Score
6.7
Neutral (4–9)
Trend
Confirmed
Confirmed Bull
Ext Score
Tight
0.00
Win Rate
44%
T1 · chop regime
Buy Trigger$775.49
+1 ATR Target$780.53
Stop Level$772.37
Full SPY analysis →
IWMNo Active Signal
$278.94
SCTR Score
2.7
Bearish (<4)
Trend
Confirmed
Confirmed Bear
Ext Score
Extended
20.00
Win Rate
—
Buy Trigger$278.42
+1 ATR Target$281.17
Stop Level$276.72
Full IWM analysis →

SPY vs IWM — Comparison Table

MetricSPYIWM
Price$778.57$278.94
Change %——
SCTR Score6.72.7
SignalBull Count 4No Active Signal
TrendConfirmed BullConfirmed Bear
Ext ScoreTightExtended
Trigger Price$775.49$278.42

How EdgeOS Signals Work for Stock Comparison

EdgeOS (Edge Operating System) scans ~3,000 liquid US equities on the daily timeframe using the SCTR score (Stock Chart Technical Rank, 0–100) as the primary momentum filter. A T1 ignition fires when: (1) the bull counter crosses from 0 to 1, (2) SCTR is above 9, and (3) price closes above the Saty ATR +0.236 trigger level. This combination produced a 55% win rate in bull regimes across 799,000 signals over 7 years.

When comparing two stocks, SCTR matters for ranking — not as a hard entry gate. The 7-year backtest showed that lower SCTR stocks in confirmed bull trends outperform high-SCTR stocks (18.7% vs 14.7% progression rate to the +1 ATR target). SCTR measures accumulated momentum, while the signal itself measures the timing of the momentum shift.

The extension score is critical for comparing two active signals: a Tight (0–0.4) extension means the stock is near its Saty ATR baseline with room to run, while an Extended (>1.2) score indicates the stock has moved far from equilibrium and carries higher risk. When both SPY and IWM have active signals, prefer the one with a lower extension score.

Frequently Asked Questions — SPY vs IWM

Which is a better buy, SPY or IWM?
As of October 11, 2026, SPY has a stronger EdgeOS setup with a Bull Count 4 (SCTR 6.7, choppy regime) vs IWM which has no active signal (SCTR 2.7). SPY's T1 setup has a 44% historical win rate in choppy regimes (799k signals, 7-year backtest). The current SPY regime is choppy.
What is SPY's current trading signal?
SPY currently has a Bull Count 4 signal on the daily timeframe. SCTR is 6.7 (Neutral (4–9)). Trend: Confirmed Bull. Buy trigger $775.49 · Target $780.53 · Stop $772.37.
What is IWM's SCTR score?
IWM's SCTR score is 2.7. Below 4 — bearish momentum zone. EdgeOS bear signals require SCTR below 4.
What is the historical win rate for T1 signals?
T1 ignition signals have a 55% win rate in bull regimes, 44% in choppy markets, and 38% in bear regimes, based on 799,000 signals from a 7-year backtest. The current SPY regime is 🟡 Chop Regime, so the adjusted T1 win rate is 44%. These numbers apply when entering within 1% of the buy trigger price with proper stop placement below the lower trigger level.

Signal data updated every 5 minutes from live EdgeOS scans · For informational purposes only · Not investment advice · Past performance does not guarantee future results.