Signal Comparison

IWM vs SPY — Signal Comparison

SPY regime: 🟡 Chop RegimeT1 win rate this regime: 44%
Verdict

As of August 28, 2026, IWM has a stronger EdgeOS setup with a Bear Count 6 (SCTR 6.7, choppy regime) vs SPY which has no active signal (SCTR 7.3). IWM's T1 setup has a 44% historical win rate in choppy regimes (799k signals, 7-year backtest). The current SPY regime is choppy.

IWMBear Count 6
$299.81
SCTR Score
6.7
Neutral (4–9)
Trend
Confirmed
Confirmed Bull
Ext Score
Extended
16.36
Win Rate
Buy Trigger$299.69
+1 ATR Target$302.17
Stop Level$298.17
Full IWM analysis →
SPYNo Active Signal
$771.10
SCTR Score
7.3
Neutral (4–9)
Trend
Confirmed
Confirmed Bull
Ext Score
Extended
18.18
Win Rate
Buy Trigger$767.56
+1 ATR Target$772.35
Stop Level$764.60
Full SPY analysis →

IWM vs SPY — Comparison Table

MetricIWMSPY
Price$299.81$771.10
Change %
SCTR Score6.77.3
SignalBear Count 6No Active Signal
TrendConfirmed BullConfirmed Bull
Ext ScoreExtendedExtended
Trigger Price$299.69$767.56

How EdgeOS Signals Work for Stock Comparison

EdgeOS (Edge Operating System) scans ~3,000 liquid US equities on the daily timeframe using the SCTR score (Stock Chart Technical Rank, 0–100) as the primary momentum filter. A T1 ignition fires when: (1) the bull counter crosses from 0 to 1, (2) SCTR is above 9, and (3) price closes above the Saty ATR +0.236 trigger level. This combination produced a 55% win rate in bull regimes across 799,000 signals over 7 years.

When comparing two stocks, SCTR matters for ranking — not as a hard entry gate. The 7-year backtest showed that lower SCTR stocks in confirmed bull trends outperform high-SCTR stocks (18.7% vs 14.7% progression rate to the +1 ATR target). SCTR measures accumulated momentum, while the signal itself measures the timing of the momentum shift.

The extension score is critical for comparing two active signals: a Tight (0–0.4) extension means the stock is near its Saty ATR baseline with room to run, while an Extended (>1.2) score indicates the stock has moved far from equilibrium and carries higher risk. When both IWM and SPY have active signals, prefer the one with a lower extension score.

Frequently Asked Questions — IWM vs SPY

Which is a better buy, IWM or SPY?
As of August 28, 2026, IWM has a stronger EdgeOS setup with a Bear Count 6 (SCTR 6.7, choppy regime) vs SPY which has no active signal (SCTR 7.3). IWM's T1 setup has a 44% historical win rate in choppy regimes (799k signals, 7-year backtest). The current SPY regime is choppy.
What is IWM's current trading signal?
IWM currently has a Bear Count 6 signal on the daily timeframe. SCTR is 6.7 (Neutral (4–9)). Trend: Confirmed Bull. Buy trigger $299.69 · Target $302.17 · Stop $298.17.
What is SPY's SCTR score?
SPY's SCTR score is 7.3. Between 4 and 9 — neutral zone. No strong directional momentum.
What is the historical win rate for T1 signals?
T1 ignition signals have a 55% win rate in bull regimes, 44% in choppy markets, and 38% in bear regimes, based on 799,000 signals from a 7-year backtest. The current SPY regime is 🟡 Chop Regime, so the adjusted T1 win rate is 44%. These numbers apply when entering within 1% of the buy trigger price with proper stop placement below the lower trigger level.

Signal data updated every 5 minutes from live EdgeOS scans · For informational purposes only · Not investment advice · Past performance does not guarantee future results.