Live Accuracy Data

TraderValue Signal Track Record

Every AI-generated signal prediction tracked against real price outcomes. Win rates are resolved nightly using live market data — no cherry-picking, no survivorship bias.

What you're looking at: These are live AI assistant predictions — a different signal type from our backtested T1 ignitions. The AI answers questions from paid users about any stock they ask about, which means it generates setups across the full universe, not just high-SCTR momentum names. Our 7-year backtested T1 ignitions (799k signals, 55% win rate in bull regimes) apply a strict entry gate: SCTR above 9, confirmed bull trend, and price near the trigger. Live AI predictions have no such gate — they're conversational, not scan-filtered.

Why predictions concentrate in Low SCTR: The AI responds to whatever users ask. Users most often ask about stocks already in their watchlist or in the news — many of which are in turnaround or recovery mode (SCTR below 25). This is expected behavior, not a flaw in the signal engine. Bull-regime T1 ignitions, which require SCTR above 9 and confirmed trend, are generated by the live scan feed, not the AI assistant.

Benchmark context: A passive buy-and-hold position in SPY over the same 5-day windows in this dataset would return approximately 0.1–0.2% on average (based on SPY's long-run daily drift). The AI prediction set shown here reflects a different use case — qualitative setups for stocks users are already watching — not a systematic strategy optimized for win rate.

Predictions Tracked

500

resolved signals

5-Day Win Rate

34%

price moved in predicted direction

10-Day Win Rate

extended hold window

Avg 5D Return

-1.34%

mean outcome across all signals

By Direction

Direction	N	5D Win Rate	10D Win Rate
▲ Bull	500	34%	0%
▼ Bear	0	—	—

By SCTR Tier

Tier	Range	N	5D Win Rate
Low	SCTR < 25	490	33%
Mid	SCTR 25–50	10	50%
High	SCTR 50–75	0	—
Very High	SCTR > 75	0	—

Recent Predictions

Symbol	Direction	SCTR	Entry	5D Return	Outcome	Date
JPM	▲ Bull	7.3	$352.04	-4.39%	❌	Sep 22
ITT	▲ Bull	7.1	$205.68	+0.73%	✅	Sep 22
CM	▲ Bull	6.9	$116.26	-3.54%	❌	Sep 22
SMH	▲ Bull	6.6	$596.03	+0.67%	✅	Sep 22
DXJ	▲ Bull	6.5	$180.17	-0.28%	❌	Sep 22
PH	▲ Bull	6.3	$958.17	+1.19%	✅	Sep 22
OMF	▲ Bull	6.2	$60.44	-6.97%	❌	Sep 22
EWBC	▲ Bull	5.8	$127.77	-0.82%	❌	Sep 22
CWB	▲ Bull	5.3	$102.92	-1.74%	❌	Sep 22
TQQQ	▲ Bull	5.3	$78.91	-2.37%	❌	Sep 22
TRMB	▲ Bull	5.1	$57.75	-0.42%	❌	Sep 22
GRID	▲ Bull	5.0	$181.08	-1.96%	❌	Sep 22
QLD	▲ Bull	4.8	$96.27	-1.45%	❌	Sep 22
RL	▲ Bull	4.4	$339.82	+5.10%	✅	Sep 22
LMT	▲ Bull	4.4	$535.40	-3.23%	❌	Sep 22
SCHG	▲ Bull	4.0	$36.27	-0.88%	❌	Sep 22
MRCY	▲ Bull	4.0	$85.65	-6.46%	❌	Sep 22
GPIX	▲ Bull	4.0	$56.41	-0.71%	❌	Sep 22
CRML	▲ Bull	6.5	$9.33	-18.01%	❌	Sep 22
SOXX	▲ Bull	6.4	$559.34	+0.26%	✅	Sep 22

Methodology: Predictions are generated from AI assistant responses for paid users. When the AI mentions a symbol setup, the system logs the entry price at the time of the prediction. A win = price moved in the predicted direction within 5 trading days. Outcomes are resolved nightly using Alpaca daily bar data. All records are stored immutably — no retroactive editing.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are TraderValue AI signals?

Every AI-generated signal prediction is tracked against real price data for 5 and 10 trading days. Win rates are updated nightly and published on this page. The track record reflects actual AI assistant responses to paid users — no cherry-picking.

What is tracked in the signal track record?

When a TraderValue AI assistant response mentions a stock setup, the system logs the symbol, direction (bull or bear), SCTR score, and entry price. A nightly resolver fetches Alpaca daily bars and computes the 5-day and 10-day returns. The resolved outcome and win/loss are stored in the ai_predictions table.

What is a win in TraderValue signal predictions?

A win is defined as price moving in the predicted direction within 5 trading days. For a bull prediction, outcome_5d > 0% = win. For a bear prediction, outcome_5d < 0% = win. The 5-day window captures the primary T1 ignition setup horizon.

📡 Live Signals

Today's T1 ignitions — updated every 30 minutes

📊 Win Rate Data

7-year backtest: 55% bull · 44% chop · 38% bear by regime

📖 Signal Guide

How T1 ignitions, SCTR, bull counts, and ATR targets work

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